I have won my first 11 games on chess.com.
This must be the same feeling a middling college basketball team gets running up the record on weak non-conference opponents.
They know by the time March comes around, their conference record will be 8-8. And they’ll be praying that their single signature win is good enough to land them in the NCAA tournament.
It took the LSU football squad more than 3/4 of a day to get home after the national championship game.
Turns out some prankster painted a 50-yard line in front of the team bus.
The BCS is better than the playoffs when it comes to determining a “true” national champion this year.
To put it in the simplest terms, a playoff would have meant that LSU would have had to play even more games to win the championship. People forget this when arguing for a playoff. Each additional game is a chance for LSU to lose what almost everyone agrees they deserve.
Let’s see what 4- and 8-team playoffs would have meant mathematically.
Hypothetical Numbers #1: Let’s be incredibly generous and say LSU is so good, they would beat any top 8 team 90% of the time.
Under the BCS, LSU would have a 90% chance to be crowned national champions.
In a 4-team playoff, it drops to 81%.
In an 8-team playoff, that drops again to 72%.
Hypothetical Numbers #2: Something a bit closer to reality, but still generous: LSU would beat Alabama 60% of the time, OK St 70% of the time, and the rest of the top 8 80% of the time.
Under the BCS, LSU has a 60% chance or 70% chance to be crowned national champions (depending on who ends up #2).
The math for the playoff systems is more difficult. In a 4-team system, LSU would be playing #4 then the winner of Alabama vs OK St. The chance of LSU winning the championship is somewhere between 48% and 56%. While the exact number depends on the odds of Alabama vs. OK St., it’s not much better than a coin flip.
In an 8-team system, obviously, it’s even worse. If LSU gets lucky and doesn’t have to play #2 or #3, they would have only a 51% chance to win all 3 games. The odds are somewhere between 38% and 51%, depending on the odds of #2 and #3 making it to the national title game.
I’m well aware playoff proponents will argue that the playoffs are better anyway because things are decided “on the field”. And that’s fine, as long as they are aware of what they are getting. There are simply too few games played during the football season to have a high degree of confidence that a “true” national champion was crowned, whatever the system.
Lesson 2: A vital part of commentating on sports is to criticize the playcalling with the benefit of hindsight. You should ignore the fact that even good coaching decisions have a chance to fail.
This is especially effective when you point out that you agreed with the initial call, making you a hypocrite.
Let’s look at ESPN’s Pat Yasinskas’ blog to give us a perfect example:
When Mike Smith first decided to go for it on fourth-and-inches in overtime, I liked the call. I thought it was gutsy and ambitious. After watching Michael Turner get stuffed, I changed my mind. Smith should have punted and taken his chances with his defense.
Hey, no one said sports commentary had to make any sense.
Last night for Halloween, I dressed as Tim Tebow. When the kids came by for candy, I threw it at their feet.*
* Not really. But I’ve seen this joke a few times and thought it was hilarious.
As my plans to start up the Mascot Sports Network have begun, I’ve been watching the Worldwide Leader to check out their secrets.
Lesson 1: Use “momentum” as a tautologous, more analytic term for “having won the last game”.
Example:
“The Texas Rangers just won Game 2 of the World Series” is not very insightful.
“The Texas Rangers have the momentum going into Game 3″ is also not very insightful, but sounds much more analytical.
We will get back in the swing of things soon. I have been very busy and have moved from Houston to Alabama.
: Is this the part where I get to mock Red Sox fans?
: Uh, sure.
Currently, I’m in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. This is home of the University of Alabama Crimson Tide.
A few days ago, I was listening to news radio. The sports headline for the hour? Auburn University was nominated for 5 ESPY’s. They didn’t win any. This was mentioned twice.
Thanks to everyone who entered this year’s Liquid Egg Product NCAA bracket! This year, I was the winner, correctly predicting UConn to win it all and ending up in the top 1% of all ESPN entries. Woot.
The Mascot and I had a bet…the loser would take a picture in drag and post it to the site. Just a little something to look forward to.
Hey, people, it’s that time of year again!
We’re having our annual March Madness bracket over at espn.com. I think you can also sign in with Facebook if you don’t have an account already.
The winner gets glory and honor among the 25 or so regular readers of LEP. Isn’t that swell?
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